[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
10N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N19W TO 05N42W TO 06N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 22W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE GULF BASIN WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW GULF NEAR 19N93W TO 30N90W THEN
INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...
ONE LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...AND THE OTHER APPROACHING
THE GULF FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N78W. THIS
IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH BRISK E-SE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAS A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 85W-92W...REMNANTS OF A
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT N-NW GALE FORCE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
22N80W TO 16N85W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS AN ALMOST DISSIPATED
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO
22N85W. WITH VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 20N
BETWEEN 82W-87W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HOWEVER...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM COSTA RICA
TO 12N77W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. WHILE THE STRONGEST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-84W.
WHILE MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED EAST OF BARBADOS FROM 09N57W TO 14N60W. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED EAST OF
THE AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC...BUT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 33N62W TO 27N73W TO A BASE OVER
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N54W TO 25N65W TO THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS THEN WESTWARD TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND FROM 18N TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF 57W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N78W. NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N32W AND
SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N36W. A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED SE OF THE LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 32N31W
TO 27N31W TO 25N33W AND DISSIPATING SW TO 21N42W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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