[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ENTERING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NEAR 11N15W TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W ALONG
7N30W 5N40W 6N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED W OF THE ITCZ
ALONG 14N57W TO 7N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
12W-26W...AND WITHIN 100 N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-36W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 42W-56W TO THE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TO LOUISIANA AND UP THE ERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER NE GEORGIA IS
SUPPORTING ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IN THE NE
GULF. THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE STILL
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SRN GULF FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
85W-92W NEAR A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
CUBA TO NEAR 23N89W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THAT
POINT TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. CLUSTERS OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WHILE FAIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE NE GULF LATE SATURDAY/EARLY
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN ATLC IS KEEPING THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA
ALONG 21/22N WITH ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DUE TO THE
STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT. DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN ARE IMPACTING
BY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT
AROUND AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL COSTA
RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-83W. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PRESENT. THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH E
OF THE ISLANDS BEGINS TO ADVECT WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC ALONG 34N60W TO
WRN CUBA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N53W TO
25N65W CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO ERN CUBA NEAR
21N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER NE
GEORGIA IS PROVIDING FAIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E...ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N43W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 33N43W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 31N33W
SUPPORTS A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N36W. AN ASSOCIATED
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N30W ALONG
27N30W 23N36W DISSIPATING TO 21N42W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE AXIS N OF 26N
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net