[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N15W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CURVES FROM 9N19W TO 6N30W 5N40W AND
5N47W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
45W AND 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 53W/54W NORTHWESTERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA TO 16N.
SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN
53W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 26N70W TO CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM CAT ISLAND...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 23N90W...CURVING TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W
AND THE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH OF 19N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N80W 26N90W 21N97W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 75W.
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OF
THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT WAS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD COASTAL NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALSO IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE
FLOW REGIME THAT DEVELOPED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LAST DEEP
LAYER TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH COLOMBIA COASTAL
WATERS NEAR 12N74W TO 10N81W...BEYOND THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA
BORDER. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL
WATERS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO
THE WEST OF 70W.

FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MERGING WITH THE EASTERN-TO-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
AREA OF THE EQUATOR IN NORTHERN BRAZIL TO THE WEST OF
50W...ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE FLOW CHANGES TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
WESTERLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST
OF 80W. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO
26N31W 22N29W AND 18N33W. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH ENDS...AND
A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS NEAR 31N30W AND CONTINUES TO 25N33W
19N39W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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