[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WRN AFRICA THROUGH GUINEA
ENTERING THE ATLC WATERS ALONG 10N14W TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 8N17W ALONG 5N30W TO 4N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED W OF THE ITCZ FROM 15N48W TO 4N52W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COOL/DRY AIRMASS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN AND SRN GULF THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N81W TO 24N89W...BECOMING STATIONARY
FROM THIS POINT TO COASTAL COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ALONG 21N93W TO
18N94W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LIMITED CONVECTION
ALONG THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE GULF N OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRANSITION
TO A SHEAR LINE AXIS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ENE WINDS
UP TO 25 KT N OF THE AXIS E OF 87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY
DRY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VERY DRY UPPER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE NW BASIN W OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18N74W TO 15N84W...
PROVIDED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION.
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE FAR ERN
TROPICAL ATLC IS PROVIDING MOIST S-SW FLOW ALOFT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS CONDITION ALONG WITH A BROAD
LOW LEVEL MOIST CYCLONIC WIND FIELD IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8N74W TO 15N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES ANALYZED FROM 15N59W TO 9N61W ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR ERN BASIN S OF 16N E OF 64W. ANOTHER
REGION OF ENHANCED CONVECTION IS THE FAR SW BASIN...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG COSTA RICA INTO NRN COLOMBIA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC THIS AFTERNOON
...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR REGION ALONG 32N66W
AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 28N70W ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS OVER NASSAU
AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N81W. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD AND FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE CONUS MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLC
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD. A FEW CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE FARTHER E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N
BETWEEN 58W-67W...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE SW CORNER
OF A BROAD/ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE AREA...
KEEPING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/OCCLUDED LOW IS OVER THE ERN ATLC REFLECTING A 1001 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N32W. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A WESTWARD MOTION. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE OCCLUSION POINT N OF THE LOW INTO OUR
AREA ALONG 32N28W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 26N33W TO 24N36W...
DISSIPATING TO NEAR 23N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 23W. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING STORM-LIKE WINDS ON THE NE QUADRANT N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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