[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERN
SENEGAL/WESTERN GUINEA-BISSAU TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ CURVES FROM
8N20W TO 5N30W AND 6N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ONE
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N47W 11N49W 6N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM
2N50W TO 11N44W TO 14N50W TO 6N52W TO 2N50W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 9N TO 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W...
AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 26N80W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W JUST TO THE NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE MEXICO GULF
COAST NEAR 20N97W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 20N97W AND
IT CONTINUES INLAND TO 23N101W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W...TO ABACO ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 25N86W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THROUGH 23N91W AND 19N96W AT THE MEXICO COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 14N75W TO A 13N83W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THIS TROUGH IS
LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT
WAS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD
COASTAL NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALSO IS
LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW REGIME THAT DEVELOPED AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE LAST DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THAT TROUGH NOW STILL
IS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH
CURVES THROUGH COLOMBIA FROM 10N/11N ALONG 75W TO 10N80W...BEYOND
THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 74W.

FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MERGING WITH THE EASTERN-TO-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
AREA OF THE EQUATOR IN NORTHERN BRAZIL TO THE WEST OF
50W...ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE FLOW CHANGES TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 20N60W 17N70W 14N80W...TO 13N AT THE EAST CENTRAL COAST
OF NICARAGUA. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO
24N37W AND 20N39W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 996 MB STORM
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N31W TO 30N32W 25N38W AND
22N44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N40W
25N30W BEYOND 32N26W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 23N57W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N20W 26N22W TO 18N29W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH MOROCCO TO MAURITANIA TO 7N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE
DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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