[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W
TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 5N25W 5N46W...INTO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST
OF 50W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N43W 12N47W 7N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W
AND 51W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W FROM 9N TO 15N.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 27N81W IN FLORIDA JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 20N97W AND IT CONTINUES INLAND TO 22N101W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 29N75W 26N90W 23N94W 20N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 14N75W TO A 13N82W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THIS TROUGH IS
LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT
WAS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD
COASTAL NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALSO IS
LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW REGIME THAT DEVELOPED AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE LAST DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THAT TROUGH NOW STILL
IS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH
CURVES THROUGH COLOMBIA ALONG 11N75W TO 10N81W...BEYOND 9N84W IN
COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
17N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W.

FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MERGING WITH THE EASTERN-TO-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
AREA OF THE EQUATOR IN NORTHERN BRAZIL TO THE WEST OF
50W...ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE FLOW CHANGES TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 20N60W 17N70W 14N80W...TO 13N AT THE EAST CENTRAL COAST
OF NICARAGUA. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO
23N39W AND 20N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1004 MB GALE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N34W TO 27N37W AND 22N43W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N47W
24N34W 29N30W BEYOND 32N28W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 26N55W AND
22N57W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W 25N24W TO 14N32W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO TO MAURITANIA TO 8N27W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED
SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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