[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W
TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N20W TO 5N30W AND 4N42W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 40W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 43W/45W
FROM 4N TO 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
55W/56W FROM 12N TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL SURINAME. RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO EAST CENTRAL COASTAL MEXICO NEAR
21N99W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 21N97W 22N97W 25N94W 27N90W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N71W...THROUGH 29N78W OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 20N60W
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N72W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N78W. CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 11N TO 16N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 16N77W TO SOUTHEASTERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA. LARGE-SCALE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW
IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE-TO-NICARAGUA
LINE...PUSHING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N...TO THE
WEST OF 77W...AND ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 32N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N47W
TO 20N57W. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N42W
IS SURROUNDED BY GALE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM FROM THE CENTER
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N42W AND
22N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N48W TO 19N55W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 24N38W TO 18N50W TO 15N60W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 30N71W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W...THROUGH
29N78W OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL MAURITANIA TO
9N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT
BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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