[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA BISSAU AND SENEGAL
NEAR 12N17W TO 10N19W.

WITH  NEAR 11N15W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO
4N33W AND 5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W...FROM 6N TO
7N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N37W 9N38W 6N39W. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE
EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA TO 26N96W AND 23N98W IN EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N92W TO 30N88W IN SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL ALABAMA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TO 24N94W IN THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 20N60W
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N72W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N77W. CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA TO 16N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO
16N77W TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. LARGE-SCALE
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE MONA PASSAGE-TO-NICARAGUA LINE...PUSHING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION SOUTHWESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 75W AND ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N42W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N45W AND 22N53W TO 20N60W.
A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N44W IS SURROUNDED
BY GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 39W AND 52W.
A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 27N44W AND
22N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N49W TO 19N52W AND
16N54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 28N38W TO 20N47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 20N46W 17N54W TO 15N60W.  MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST
OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE 30N71W CENTER...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA TO 24N94W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N76W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N8W...ACROSS CENTRAL MAURITANIA TO 9N22W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED
SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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