[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WRN AFRICA THROUGH GUINEA
ENTERING THE ATLC WATERS ALONG 10N14W TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 7N17W ALONG 5N28W TO 5N41W...THEN IT RESUMES W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 5N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N53W. THE
EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 12N42W TO 4N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-41W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING
NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUYANA...ANALYZED FROM 12N55W TO
6N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 9N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT ENTERED THE NW BASIN THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM THE WRN LOUISIANA COAST TO
THE SRN TEXAS COAST ALONG 29N93W TO 26N97W. DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITHIN 60 NM. SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT IS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...WITH ONLY A FEW
LINES OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NE BASIN N OF 26N E OF 88W.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROVIDED BY A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT 20-25 KT N WINDS OVER THE NW GULF BEHIND
THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N74W INTO NRN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOSTLY N OF 13N WITHIN 70 NM ALONG THE AXIS AND THEY ARE QUICKLY
MOVING INTO THE SW BASIN WITH THE 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...INTO NRN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AFFECTING MOSTLY THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR SE. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH
TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
30N72W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WRN
ATLC. A 1004 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N45W MOVING NE OUT OF OUR DISCUSSION AREA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE OCCLUSION POINT N OF THE LOW INTO OUR AREA
ALONG 30N43W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 24N46W TO 20N54W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AREA WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE WITHIN 270 NM SE AND 150 NM SW QUADRANT GENERATING SEAS 11
TO 14 FT. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE ATLANTIC
NEAR 40N20W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SSW 17N45W...KEEPING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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