[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NONE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUING A SHORT WAY TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N18W TO 5N30W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
17W-23W...AND FROM 1N-12N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OVER SE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA MOVING E. PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENTERED THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN GALVESTON TEXAS AND CORPUS CHRISTIE
TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A 1025
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N74W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH ALONG 30N TO MISSISSIPPI. 10-15 KT
SE-S WINDS DOMINATE OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS FROM THE SW BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO N FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT 20-25 KT N WINDS OVER THE NW GULF N
OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N71W TO LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE TROUGH. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS OF BELIZE MOVING W. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO
PANAMA ALONG 9N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 77W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS S OF 13N OVER THE S CARIBBEAN SEA...SW CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
MOVE W WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N74W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A 1005 MB GALE LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N48W MOVING NE. A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 24N50W 20N54W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW FROM 30N TO BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 43W-49W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE THE
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 42W-46W. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND NW
QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM
THE HIGH TO 23N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W ENHANCING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
12N40W TO 2N42W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 12N53W TO 5N55W. BOTH TROUGHS HAVE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND ARE MOVING W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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