[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N52W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
CURVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER BEYOND 32N50W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 21N54W AND 19N60W...ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N55W 24N58W 18N62W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W
AND 61W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE
NEXT SIX HOURS AND CONTINUE FOR 24 HOURS...WITHIN 150 NM IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 9 FEET TO 14 FEET DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 49W AND
53W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW CENTER GRADUALLY MAY ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS/BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. IT WILL BE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR
13N17W TO 9N20W AND 8N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO
9N30W 9N40W AND 7N52W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
TO THE EAST OF 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
SPIRALS AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH THAT IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 94W...WHICH IS ALONG THE CENTER OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
AROUND A 32N78W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THE RIDGE GOES FROM THE
HIGH CENTER TO WESTERN GEORGIA...AND IT ULTIMATELY CONTINUES
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 24N58W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 18N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 21N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 19N60W...
ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N60W
14N66W 14N73W 18N70W...IN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW.
THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES FROM 11N74W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST
TO 10N80W AND BEYOND COSTA RICA ALONG 10N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N FROM
74W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS
ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W IN
EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW AND CLOUD
MOVEMENTS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N78W ABOUT
170 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW CENTER
WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGHS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE WEATHER SYSTEM. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MAURITANIA...ACROSS
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 11N28W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE
DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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