[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N53W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
CURVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER BEYOND 32N50W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 20N57W AND 16N65W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A THIRD
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 13N TO 21N. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N55W 26N57W 18N61W. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND THE TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 30N
BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST WITHIN 420 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW CENTER GRADUALLY MAY ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS/BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. IT WILL BE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF SENEGAL AND
GUINEA-BISSAU...TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
8N24W 9N30W 7N40W 8N45W...INTO NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN 12W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
SPIRALS AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH THAT IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 94W...WHICH IS ALONG THE CENTER OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
A 32N87W 29N94W 28N97W RIDGE. THIS RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N57W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 18N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE 24N53W LOW CENTER THAT IS THE SPECIAL
FEATURE...TO 20N57W AND 16N65W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N60W 15N66W 13N70W
14N73W 18N70W...IN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N FROM 75W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST BEYOND
COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
12N FROM 75W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N79W ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
CENTER WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGHS. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE WEATHER
SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
MAURITANIA...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 12N30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED
SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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