[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SMALL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH SRN SENEGAL
INTO THE ATLC ALONG 13N17W TO 10N20W. IMMEDIATELY TO ITS W...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 10N21W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ STARTS
FROM 7N23W CONTINUING WESTWARD 5N30W 7N40W TO 5N46W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 16W-48W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON OVER A GREAT PORTION
OF THE BASIN WITH DRY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF. THE ONLY TWO AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOTED
OVER THE FAR WRN AND NE CORNER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE W
OF 96W N OF 22N AND E OF 88W N OF 26N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE
WRN ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS E AND SE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WED WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 14N W OF 75W...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED
ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 10N84W 11N79W 10N74W.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DRIFT WESTWARD INTO ERN
NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SMALL AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS
REMAIN OVER THE NW BASIN FROM 18N-20N W OF 80W ASSOCIATED TO THE
DISSIPATED STATIONARY FRONT FROM YESTERDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW-TOP ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING
THE BASIN MOVING ALONG WITH THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOSTLY
DRY STABLE AIR IS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN AND N OF THE LEEWARDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WRN NORTH ATLC SUPPORTING
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N58W TO 26N74W. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB NEAR 39N63W. THE SAME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A
MORE VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM FARTHER EAST. THIS IS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC...BECOMING A SURFACE
TROUGH AS IT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N51W TO 23N56W.
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 22N53W ALONG 17N53W TO 11N55W. THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING S INTO
THE TROPICS. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN PARTICULAR IS PROVIDING
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...INFLUENCED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS GENERATING A N-S ELONGATED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N BETWEEN 45W-51W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N35W. THE CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW WITHIN
THE TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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