[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 52W/53W IS NOW ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH. SEE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION BELOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N17W ALONG 6N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-32W AND
FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
MOISTURE NOTED IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N BETWEEN 90W-97W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N96W TO JUST INLAND OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-22N W OF 93W.
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1033 MB HIGH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINA COAST WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 26N92W TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 87W AND ACROSS THE S
FLORIDA PENINSULA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E-NE INTO THE W ATLC SAT
AND MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WED
AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO WED
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE WEAK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH A
DISTINCT BOUNDARY OF DRY MOSTLY STABLE AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-86W
USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST
MOVING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ALSO USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE N CARIBBEAN AND N OF
THE LEEWARDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 31N62W TO 28N70W WHERE A SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM SE AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N55W
SUPPORTING A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N56W EXTENDING
S INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR BARBADOS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING N ALONG 28N55W TO 33N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO WITHIN THIS
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N54W 19N53W 13N53W TO 10N52W. A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM NEAR
10N39W ALONG 21N43W TO BEYOND 32N47W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250/275 NM OF LINE FROM 10N48W 23N50W TO
BEYOND 32N50W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE E ATLC TO
20N E OF 34W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC NEAR 32N16W TO 20N27W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM S
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N35W
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE COLD
FRONT. STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH SAT EVENING. ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SUN. A LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NE MON AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net