[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N44W 13N45W 8N46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL
NEAR 12N17W TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N22W TO 6N28W
TO 5N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE
OF AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT STILL IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS NEAR 30N97W IN TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS
THEY HEAD TOWARD FLORIDA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 27N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE RAINSHOWERS ARE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER OVER LAND IN
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 17N60W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 66W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W...
FROM THE GUADELOUPE PASSAGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE
FROM 18N86W TO 11N78W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 10N76W
IN NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...THROUGH EASTERN PANAMA BEYOND THE
PENINSULA DE AZUERO OF PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N
BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 79W OFF THE PANAMA COAST.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 83W IN THE
SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 26N74W. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE 30N48W-TO-NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
TROUGH AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N48W...TO 31N62W
29N73W...INTO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PASSES
THROUGH 33N14W TO 31N26W TO 34N40W 30N48W...TRANSITIONING INTO
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 30N48W 23N52W
20N56W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N60W.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N60W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ TO THE SHEAR
AXIS AND TO THE EAST OF THE 30N48W-TO-VENEZUELA UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 28N44W 25N48W 22N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W...AND FROM 25N TO 29N
BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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