[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT.
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT AREA OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V SURFACE
FEATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH TRAVERSES WEST AFRICA AND EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N19W TO 5N30W TO 8N40W TO 7N50W TO 9N60W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 18W-36W
...AND FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 46W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
33N87W 28N90W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
15 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OUTSIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE...10-15 KT
SE-S-SW WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO RUSH
EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG
11N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 75W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO
GUATEMALA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...
PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N42W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
S FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
27N46W 19N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
24N-29N BETWEEN 41W-49W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N16W TO 29N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD
FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC FROM N FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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