[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 8N19W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 5N24W 6N34W AND 3N46W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 43W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS ON TOP
OF THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF 20N65W 13N70W 16N80W 18N88W...AND
SPANNING THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N76W IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF ELEUTHERA
ISLAND. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N95W 28N93W INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WHERE RAINSHOWERS HAD BEEN OCCURRING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. THAT ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED FOR THE MOMENT. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 27N NORTHWARD TO 30N96W.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N74W...INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N59W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N63W...TO 11N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS HAVE MOVED A BIT TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 16N85W NEAR THE COAST OF
HONDURAS...TO 11N75W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BROAD SURFACE
CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
11N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE 16N85W 11N75W LINE. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO
27N52W...BEYOND 17N62W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ONE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N55W TO 19N59W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
15N60W 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 TO
300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 12N60W 23N49W TO 30N42W BEYOND
32N33W. A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N42W
24N46W 19N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
29N74W...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO
31N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N27W TO 29N39W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FOUND IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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