[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO
9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO 7N25W 7N36W AND 7N46W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N
TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 41W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS
ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF 20N65W 13N70W 16N80W 18N88W...AND
SPANNING THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N76W IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF ELEUTHERA
ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS IN THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...TO 27N95W
AND 24N96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
IS IN NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...INTO AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. ONE PRECIPITATION CELL IS ABOUT 30 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
BERMUDA TO 29N75W...AND TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N57W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N62W...TO 12N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W
AND 56W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 16N85W NEAR THE COAST OF
HONDURAS...TO 11N75W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BROAD SURFACE
CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N81W...BEYOND COSTA RICA ALONG
10N/11N AND PASSING THROUGH 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 10N75W
AT THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 14N81W TO 15N83W NEAR THE BORDERS
OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO EL SALVADOR.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW...
TO THE EAST OF 70W TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO
26N54W...BEYOND 20N60W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N56W TO 20N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
19N60W 24N49W BEYOND 32N36W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
27N44W 24N47W 20N49W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
29N75W...AND TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 31N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 31N31W TO 30N39W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FOUND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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