[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 10N18W AND 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W
TO 6N35W AND 9N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...FROM 4N
TO 9N BETWEEN 23W AND 37W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 33W
AND 36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 67W...SPANNING THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND CUBA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THAT CENTER BEYOND 32N76W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 67W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N60W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N63W...TO THE WEST OF GUADELOUPE.
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 61W JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MONSOON TROUGH COVERS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 10N IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 77W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY IS
NEAR 10N88W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W
TO 23N60W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N63W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 TO
250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 19N60W AND
PASSES THROUGH 25N50W AND BEYOND 32N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 27N53W 23N55W 19N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W...MOVING AROUND
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N24W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 27N48W. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THIS FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND IT CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N43W
17N46W 8N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N42W 20N45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS
NEAR THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH FEEDS INTO
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FLOW THAT IS HEADING TOWARD THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N31W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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