[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU IN AFRICA
NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N18W TO 5N32W
AND 6N42W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N
BETWEEN 15W AND 16W...AND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 67W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 67W...SPANNING THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND CUBA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THAT CENTER BEYOND 32N76W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 67W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N60W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N64W...TO THE WEST OF GUADELOUPE.
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN
58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 63W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MONSOON TROUGH COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
11N75W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST BEYOND 10N IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 75W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY IS ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF COSTA RICA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO
27N57W TO 20N60W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N64W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 19N60W AND PASSES THROUGH 26N50W
AND BEYOND 32N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N51W 24N55W
19N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N63W 25N52W BEYOND
32N43W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO
32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W...MOVING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N25W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N34W TO 30N38W. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
WITH TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N44W 18N46W 9N48W.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THIS TROUGH FEEDS INTO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FLOW THAT IS
HEADING TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W
AND 57W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE 23N44W 9N48W TROUGH
AND PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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