[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...DATE CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ AXIS
ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W EXTENDING ALONG 9N17W
6N32W TO 9N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 19W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING AN AXIS NE TO
ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE GULF
ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND
RETURN FLOW TO THE GULF AGAIN THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF
WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT E TUE AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW GULF TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. A
STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY THU AND DISSIPATE ALONG 25N ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 70W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE
S EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO NE COLOMBIA INDUCING A
SHEAR AXIS TO THE N ALONG 17N DIVIDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE N AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR TO THE S AND
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM NE HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W
TO COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER THEN CROSSES INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
DRIFTS W TO THE N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC TO 68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N BETWEEN
BETWEEN 50W-68W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 58W-65W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO HISPANIOLA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER 500 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE
FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS NEAR
18N54W NE TO BEYOND 32N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N54W TO 19N57W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-28W BETWEEN 48W-58W. A REMNANT
COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N35W TO
27N49W SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH
1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N29W. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL
ATLC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE W ATLC THU AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR MELBOURNE
FLORIDA FRI THEN DISSIPATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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