[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 11N15W TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W TO 4N30W AND
6N42W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO
8N BETWEEN 13W AND 14W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 29W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
27N92W...TO 20N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF MEXICO. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH
THE TEXAS GULF COAST/THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO UNTIL
72 HOURS INTO THE FUTURE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 26N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 20N69W...JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE HONDURAS/
NICARAGUA BORDER. WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS LEFT
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO
THE WEST OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE AREA. WEAK CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW APPEARED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN THE EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF 13
NOVEMBER. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N76W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST...TO
11N82W...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WAS ANALYZED NEAR 11N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST TWELVE
HOURS...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W...IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS IN GENERAL COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 75W...DURING THE
TIME FROM 13/0645 UTC UNTIL 13/1645 UTC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVERED PARTS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...
TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...FROM 13N/0645 UTC UNTIL
13/1845 UTC. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN CURACAO FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC WAS AT LEAST 2 INCHES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
26N61W TO 20N69W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N43W TO 28N51W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 50W AND 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N53W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 10N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND
52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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