[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...DATE CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N15W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N15W ALONG
5N23W 5N32W 8N37W TO 6N44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N E OF 36W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION AND EXTENDING TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA
TO TUXPAN MEXICO BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND RETURN FLOW TO THE
GULF THIS EVENING. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN
IN PATCHES ACROSS THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL
SHIFT E TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NW GULF LATE TUE
THROUGH WED. FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE NW
GULF THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A STRONGER REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER N GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN E/W UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM E
CUBA TO THE YUCATAN JUST N OF BELIZE BRINGING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NE
HONDURAS. HOWEVER...BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST TO THE S OF THIS
BOUNDARY PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH MOIST AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA IS THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W THROUGH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
11N77W THEN CROSSES PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE FROM 16N78W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W INCLUDING E
JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 67W-71W. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W NARROWING
AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA BECOMING MORE E/W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-24N
BETWEEN 65-73W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM N OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE
FLORIDA. A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N55W SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WELL
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N63W TO 27N53W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM 24N60W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N52W TO NEAR 17N53W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N52W TO 20N54W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 50W-53W. A
SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N38W TO 16N41W
WITHOUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC WITH 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
30N37W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN  STATIONARY THROUGH
TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR W ATLC EARLY THU AND REACH FROM
NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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