[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W 7N27W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
7N27W TO 7N50W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 32N84W WITH
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT E-SE
WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE
GULF AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR THE HIGH CENTER.
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINS ARE OVER THE W GULF
W OF 88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS. EXPECT...CONTINUED
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...W HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
85W-92W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N76W TO THE GULF OF URABA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN
78W-81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
14N AND E OF 65W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N57W TO E CUBA NEAR
21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1026
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N40W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 27N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 23N29W 19N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N14W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N16W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE W TO 30N50W
WITH SHOWERS...AND FOR THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER TO
W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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