[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N22W
ALONG 6N33W TO 5N46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE SE CONES
DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THE STRONG ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AND WITHIN
90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF TAMPICO AND W OF CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NE GULF WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF
THROUGH TUE...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE
GULF TUESDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE COAST
OF HONDURAS ALONG 22N80W TO 16N86W. AT THE SAME TIME...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THUS NO DEEP CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 17N72W TO INLAND OVER NRN
COLOMBIA 10N73W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THIS SAME REGION
IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N
W OF 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD THIS
MORNING...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO OUR W ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N61W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 26N72W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N76W AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE
AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE W AND E OF THE FRONT IS LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH A NARROW SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 45W-51W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS 32N17W TO 26N26W BECOMING STATIONARY
TO 24N30W 19N36W 22N45W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES FROM AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IN THE
TROPICS THAT IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N FROM THE ITCZ WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN E OF 30W. THE WRN ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ON MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ATLC
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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