[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111216
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT FRI NOV 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN AT 11/1200 UTC IS NEAR 33.4N
65.4W...OR ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF BERMUDA. SEAN IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT SEAN IS IN THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4...AND UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC. THE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS LISTED UNDER
THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...AND UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT34
KNHC. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 TO 45 NM RADIUS
OF 33.5N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 28N
TO 32N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 12N16W IN GUINEA-BISSAU TO
8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N20W TO 5N30W 6N41W AND 6N50W.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND
36W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 16N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 13N42W AND 8N44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT
HAS BEEN ANALYZED ACCORDING TO THE OBSERVED TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE COMPARATIVELY
COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS BEEN LAGGING BEHIND...WITH RESPECT
TO THE BAND OF CLOUDINESS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE FRONT AT THE MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N63W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO THE EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...TO 14N68W TO 12N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL
FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
19N68W IN THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
CURVING TOWARD COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL
WATERS TO 10N80W BEYOND 9N83W ALONG THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA
BORDER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N IN
PANAMA TO 10.5N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
75W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N20W TO 31N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
THE FRONT AT THE MOMENT. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
30N17W TO 27N30W 27N41W 31N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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