[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 110845
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
500 AM AST FRI NOV 11 2011

SEAN IS SHOWING A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN IN INFRARED AND TRMM
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  WHILE
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE
UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
THE AMSU MICROWAVE SOUNDER AND THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS.  IN ADDITION...
AN ASCAT OVERPASS NEAR 0200 UTC SHOWED WINDS NEAR 45 KT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED TO 50 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
SEAN GETS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 18-24 HOURS.

SEAN IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 050/19.  AN EVEN FASTER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
LIFE OF THE CYCLONE.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 32.9N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 35.2N  62.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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