[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EDT FRI NOV 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN AT 11/0600 UTC IS NEAR
32.0N 67.5W...OR ABOUT 140 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA.
SEAN IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT SEAN
IS IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4...
AND UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC. THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
IS LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...AND UNDER THE
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN
54W AND 70W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
32.5N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 12N16W IN GUINEA-BISSAU
TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N20W TO 5N30W 7N45W...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL SURINAME NEAR 5N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
4N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 16N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N44W AND 8N44W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA TO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
U.S.A. BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH HAS IMPROVED THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CURVING INTO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF
THE TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE FRONT AT THE MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N63W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO THE EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...TO 14N68W TO 12N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL
FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
20N68W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N69W TO 14N70W. 11N76W
TO 10N80W...BEYOND THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER NEAR 9N83W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 16N73W 15N76W 12N79W...AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN
77W AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N20W TO 31N30W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
THE FRONT AT THE MOMENT. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
30N16W TO 27N20W 27N46W 30N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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