[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT THU NOV 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN AT 10/1200 UTC IS NEAR 30.3N
70.7W. SEAN IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ABOUT SEAN IS IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4...AND UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC. THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY IS LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...AND UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 59W
AND 77W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN 84W/85W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH OTHER
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT ALREADY IS PART OF THE TROUGH THAT
IS AROUND THE AREA OF SEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND
72W...IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE CENTER. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE REST OF THE
BROAD LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SURROUNDS SEAN...FROM
17N TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...INCLUDING
AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 12N16W IN GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO 5N31W TO
7N46W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN
24W AND 27W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W...AND FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 16N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 7N43W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AWAY FROM
THE 16N38W CENTER...FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 84W/85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 31N83W TO 25N86W AND 21N90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...FROM 26N TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN 92W AND
95W. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT
ONLY REACHES OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS AT THE MOMENT. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 94W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING
TO 8 TO 10 FEET...AND THEN FROM 12 TO 17 FEET DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...TO 15N68W
TO A SHEAR ZONE NEAR 13N70W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE REST OF THE BROAD
LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SURROUNDS SEAN...FROM 17N TO
THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...INCLUDING AFFECTING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG
18N69W NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 12N70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N76W IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS
WITH COMPARATIVELY COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST
OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TO
THE EAST OF 50W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 29N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF
THE AREA FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW/TROUGH THAT IS AROUND T.S. SEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...ACROSS THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS...
TO 27N30W... TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 51W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO 32N
TO THE EAST OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 16N38W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 7N41W. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION
ALSO IS NEAR THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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