[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2335 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM SEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.8N 69.8W...OR ABOUT 430
MI...695 KM SW OF BERMUDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KTS. SEAN IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION SEE THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY LISTED
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. SEAN IS
DOMINATING THE WRN ATLC PRODUCING A LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-32N
BETWEEN 65W-73W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS ALONG 8N20W 7N30W 5N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE NW GULF WATERS...OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LINE
COMPOSED OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG GALVESTON BAY TO
NEAR 26N95W. THE SEVERE WEATHER IS FOCUSED INLAND ACROSS ERN
TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS STILL
MOVING ACROSS ESE TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW
GULF TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT BEHIND
IT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK
SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. SSE SURFACE FLOW
10-20 KT IF OBSERVED IN THE WRN GULF W OF 90W. THIS FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE OF THE COMING FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS A GREAT PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN. AT LOWER LEVELS TPW PRODUCT DISPLAYS MODERATE
TO HIGH MOISTURE VALUES PRESENT OVER THE SW...CENTRAL...AND ERN
BASIN. CONSEQUENTLY...LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY REVEALED
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL BASINS. A SMALL
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ERN BASIN...IN THE VICINITY OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 17N63W TO 12N65W. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD WITH INCREASING
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 73W...
ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA TO
NRN COLOMBIA. SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGEST THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM SEAN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WRN ATLC WITH
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AND A GUSTY
CYCLONIC WIND FIELD W OF 62W. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL
FEATURE ABOVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SURROUNDING T.S. SEAN...GENERATING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
19N66W TO 24N63W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS
SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE EAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 18N BETWEEN 53W-63W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ENE
ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N20W TO 27N30W BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT ALONG
25N40W 27N50W TO 30N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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