[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT MON NOV 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN DEVELOPED AT 08/0900 UTC. THE CENTER OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN AT 08/0900 UTC IS NEAR 27.2N 69.4W.
SEAN IS STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT SEAN IS IN
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4...AND
UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC. THE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS LISTED
UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...AND UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KNHC. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 57W AND 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N
TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 21.5N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND
IN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND
63W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN SENEGAL/GAMBIA NEAR
13N17W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS DOES NOT SHOW UP BECAUSE OF NO
CONFLUENCE OF THE TRADEWINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 15N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 6N44W. SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 9N
BETWEEN 29W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD AND GRADUAL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FINALLY
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 16N69W TO 13N72W...ABOUT 60 NM TO
THE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS AWAY
FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THREE SEPARATE
CLUSTERS ARE IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 74W IN COLOMBIA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO 12N80W...IN TRADEWIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
12N74W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 10N80W...BEYOND EASTERN COSTA
RICA ALONG 10N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG
THE COLOMBIA COAST INTO THE GULF OF URABA...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 20N65W 13N70W 12N84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N33W 26N37W AND 27N45W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N45W TO 31N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 32W AND
51W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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