[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EDT MON NOV 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N69W...
ABOUT 630 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER BEYOND THE MONA
PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
BETWEEN 57W AND 80W. A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
28N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 28N64W TO 25N63W TO
20N65W...BEYOND PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N69W.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 67W AND
73W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS REACHING FROM 16 TO 22 FEET.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N
TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W.
RECENT SATELLITE INFORMATION INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THAT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ALSO
HAVE DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE CENTER. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING...AND IT HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE INITIATED ON THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER LATER
THIS MORNING IF THE TREND CONTINUES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
FEATURE MAY BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD TODAY...AND THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTWARD BY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
GALE AREA IS IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...
AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO
10N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 7N25W TO 6N37W TO 6N42W AND
6N48W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO
8N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 15N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
7N41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...THE WEST CENTRAL AREA...AND FINALLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 16N69W TO 13N72W...ABOUT 60 NM TO
THE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS A SPECIAL
FEATURE...A 1003 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N69W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF
16N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSS LAND
FROM EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS
NEAR 12N74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
16N TO THE EAST OF 70W...IN TRADEWIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 11N BETWEEN 76W AND NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...
BEYOND EASTERN COSTA RICA ALONG 10N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 28N37W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 28N37W TO 27N47W AND 30N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N20W TO 25N30W TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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