[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 28N69W
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG 29N CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM
27N-32N BETWEEN 63W-72W. WHILE THIS CONVECTION REMAINS WITHIN
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT...NORTHEASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY
THE LOW N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE.
SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL TO 22 FT IN NE SWELL.
THE LOW MAY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND NORTHWESTWARD ON
TUESDAY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
12N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
12N19W TO 05N35W TO 05N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 32W-44W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 06N44W TO 13N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE MIDDLE GULF
WATERS ALONG 90W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA...THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SE
CONUS AND ALONG 30N89W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20N97W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH
OF THE W ATLC IN SUPPORT OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE. THE TROUGH AXIS DIPS SOUTHWARD ALONG 70W TO 12N AND
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 20N67W ACROSS
EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 18N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED
SOUTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 15N72W TO 10N77W. THE COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY...VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING E TO SE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. FINALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W-83W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF PANAMA ALONG 07N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC WATERS NEAR
34N72W WITH AXIS FROM THE LOW TO 20N69W. BENEATH THIS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE SPECIAL FEATURES OCCLUDED 1005 MB LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
29N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W. ASIDE FROM GALE FORCE
WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND THE OVERALL
STRONGER WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW...MOST OF THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED NORTH FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 63W-72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N64W TO 32N57W OVER
AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. FARTHER
EAST...A WEAK 1013 LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N56W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 21N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 53W-57W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH ATLC...SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N30W TO 27N42W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
TO 27N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
COLD FRONT NEAR 27N41W TO 20N49W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N15W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 25N32W TO NEAR
22N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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