[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT MON NOV 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N68W...
ABOUT 650 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER BEYOND THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 55W AND 80W. THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
28N68W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N70W
AND THE TRIPLE POINT 31N63W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N63W
TO 29N57W. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO
24N65W AND BEYOND 20N69W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ENDING IN
WESTERN JAMAICA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N
BETWEEN 69W AND 73W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS REACHING FROM
18 TO 21 FEET IN NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN
64W AND 70W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N67W 23N65W 26N61W BEYOND
32N57W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WESTWARD TODAY AND NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IS FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO
11N20W TO 7N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 7N23W TO 5N31W AND
5N37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...THE WEST CENTRAL
AREA...AND FINALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO 16N71W AND 13N75W...ABOUT 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
COLOMBIA COAST. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 20N69W...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CENTRAL HAITI...TO WESTERN JAMAICA.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
67W/68W FROM 11N TO 16N. THIS TROUGH MAY BE THE REMNANT OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE FROM A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA. THE MONSOON TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 12N74W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST...TO 10N77W
AND 11N82W...BEYOND EASTERN COSTA RICA ALONG 10N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
28N68W...ABOUT 650 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 69W
AND 73W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS REACHING FROM 18 TO 21 FEET IN
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 31N34W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N34W TO 28N40W AND 25N50W. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W 25N40W 20N50W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 15N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 8N41W AND 6N43W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N48W 13N54W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND
46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N55W 9N56W. THIS TROUGH SHOWS
UP IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA.  A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
32N18W...THROUGH 30N23W TO 24N30W TO 19N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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