[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EDT MON NOV 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-13 SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC...AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
29N68W...ABOUT 700 NM TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER BEYOND THE
EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 55W AND 80W. THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
28N69W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N70W
AND THE TRIPLE POINT 31N63W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N63W
TO 29N57W. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO
24N65W AND BEYOND 20N70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ENDING IN
WESTERN JAMAICA. GALE-FORCE WINDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 18 TO
22 FEET IN NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. GALE-FORCE WINDS ALSO COVER THE
WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...WITH
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14 TO 18 FEET. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN
65W AND 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND NORTHWESTWARD
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS IS FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...
AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR
12N17W TO 11N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 11N20W TO 4N31W
AND 4N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS
THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...THE WEST CENTRAL
AREA...AND FINALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO 16N71W AND 13N75W...ABOUT 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
COLOMBIA COAST. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 20N69W...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CENTRAL HAITI...TO WESTERN JAMAICA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 13N TO 17N. RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF COLOMBIA/
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS...SOME DISSIPATING WITH TIME...COVER THE WATERS FROM
14N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...AND FROM THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND
68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 13N TO 17N. THE
MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N74W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST...
TO 11N80W...BEYOND EASTERN COSTA RICA ALONG 10N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
29N68W...ABOUT 700 NM TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST. GALE-FORCE WINDS ALSO COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
14 TO 18 FEET. GALE-FORCE WINDS ALSO COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 14 TO 18 FEET.SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 28N45W AND 27N51W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 31N37W 27N42W 23N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
17N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N30W 25N40W 20N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 15N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 8N41W AND 6N43W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N
BETWEEN 30W AND 37W...AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 51W. A SURFACE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N18W...THROUGH 30N23W TO 24N31W
TO 15N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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