[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EDT SUN NOV 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM
THE ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N19W
ALONG 4N34W TO 6N50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 10N
BETWEEN 31W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST
ALONG 89W WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
TALLAHASSEE ALONG 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N93W WITH
RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING
IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE PRODUCING AREAS OF CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT E MON AND WEAKEN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE
TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THU THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES FROM SW FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY
FRI AND TO JUST SE OF THE GULF LATE FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-80W
SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W/71W S OF 16N TO THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR GUADALOUPE
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N67W
ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE
N COAST OF PANAMA. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD S ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT THROUGH THU
AS THE LOW OVER THE W ATLC DRIFTS W OVER THE W ATLC. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN WEAKEN TUE
AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 29N68W SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS N
THEN E FROM A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N69W AND A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 30N64W
ALONG 24N65W TO OVER HISPANIOLA INTO THE N CARIBBEAN NEAR
20N71W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT E TO 29N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FROM 28N-32W BETWEEN 66W-70W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN W OF THE FRONT TO THE GEORGIA COAST AND
INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 31N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N41W TO 29N53W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N39W TO 25N54W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
GUADALOUPE THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N34W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 17N62W TO 21N58W AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 47W-60W AND WITHIN
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
ABOUT 350 NM NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE W ATLC LOW WILL DRIFT
W THROUGH MON NIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AS THE FRONT BECOMES A SURFACE
TROUGH ON TUE AND WED. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF AREA
LATE WED INTO THU WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
TO E CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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