[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N70W TO 17N67W MOVING W AT 10
KT. THE WAVE AND ITS ENERGY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO
THE NW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA CONTINUE TO SHEAR ENERGY TO
THE NE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N20W TO 05N37W TO 03N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 24W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE MIDDLE GULF
WATERS ALONG 90W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SE
PENNSYLVANIA...THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SE CONUS AND ALONG 30N86W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N96W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND USHER IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH
OF THE W ATLC IN SUPPORT OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 20N70W ACROSS NW HISPANIOLA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION TO NORTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N79W. WITH
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...THE FRONT
LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO INITIATE
OR SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ONLY LOW-TOPPED
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS SW OF THE
FRONT OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 81W-83W...AND FARTHER
SOUTH FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN CONTAINS A DISSIPATING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W WITH
ENERGY CONTINUING TO BE SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED E OF A
LINE FROM 18N67W TO 12N72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG
32N69W TO 20N73W. BENEATH THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN
OCCLUDED 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE LOW TO 30N65W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
S-SW ALONG 25N66W TO NW HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W. A WARM FRONT
ALSO EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO 29N59W. ASIDE FROM GALE FORCE WINDS
WITHIN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW AND THE OVERALL STRONGER WIND
FIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W-70W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NORTH ATLC...SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N46W
TO 29N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLD FRONT
NEAR 33N42W TO 25N54W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND
06/1248 UTC INDICATED THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING OVER AN AREA FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 48W-60W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N21W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH ALONG 25N33W TO NEAR 17N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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