[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W/66W S
OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN
61W-67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W...THEN CONTINUES TO 11N18W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N18W TO 7N24W TO 9N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 25W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MARYLAND NEAR 39N77W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THEN CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF
90W.  15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IN
THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
OVER E TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
JAMAICA ALONG 20N73W 18N77W. FURTHER W...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 84W-89W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER
S...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA TO N
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 11N TO
INCLUDE THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1006 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR
31N63W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. A SMALL WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT TO 31N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE OCCLUDED AND WARM FRONTS...AND ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT N OF 26N. FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO 26N51W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THIS FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N16W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC GALE LOW NEAR
30N68W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AREA OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND
FROM 17N-28N BETWEEN 50W-60W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE GALE LOW TO
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER. EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED W ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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