[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT NOV 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM NEAR
19N58W ACROSS MARTINIQUE TO 12N63W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH
A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES PRESENT BETWEEN
56W-63W EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 54W-62W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD NEAR 10 KT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA AND INTO THE ERN ATLC
ALONG 12N16W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W ALONG 7N29W
8N39W 7N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-35W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
WITHIN 220 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT LEAVING COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE THE LAND MASSES REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF AS WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. ALOFT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE ERN
CONUS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES THERE IS MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
WITH STRONGER WINDS BUILDING OVER THE ERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO NRN HONDURAS ALONG
20N84W 16N87W. DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...THE FRONT IS ONLY
SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 84-87W. THE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDS EWD TO
72W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN
BESIDES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN COSTA RICA TO NRN
COLOMBIA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 72W SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 17N69W TO 13N71W. CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH UNDER THE
DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 66W-71W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IMPACTING
THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF 62W FROM
13N-15N. EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE
MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE WRN ATLC TODAY SUPPORTING A 1000
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N73W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS E
OF THE LOW ALONG 31N69W 26N72W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E
OF THE FRONT N OF 26N BETWEEN 61W-68W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 28N77W DEPICTING A SECOND WIND
SHIFT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NE OF THE CENTER. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A
SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS ALONG
31N47W TO 25N59W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
THE AXIS.  FARTHER E...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N58W TOWARDS THE AZORES ISLANDS
SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N22W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 26N31W TO
11N40W CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON








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