[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI NOV 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N54W ALONG 15N58W TO 9N59W
MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
THAT ENCOMPASSES THE TROPICAL ATLC. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180/225
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N21W TO
8N43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
16W-25W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 90W INTO
THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 04/2100 UTC
ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR EVERGLADES
CITY EXTENDING ALONG 22N86W TO 21N93W BECOMING STATIONARY TO
INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM SE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW
ACROSS CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE N GULF. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
CONVERGING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF S
OF 24N W OF 93W. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER NE
TEXAS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW GULF WHERE CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WILL SHIFT E SUN AND MON WHILE WEAKENING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE
EVENING REACHING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
BY WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 84W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HAITI TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS N OF 16N TO OVER
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-71W. A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
9N61W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N E OF 70W INCLUDING THE
ABC ISLANDS...TRINIDADA AND TOBAGO. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO ACROSS
COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N83W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 11N TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY TONIGHT
THEN MOVE ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SUN
AS IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
EARLY TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT
THROUGH MON. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD S
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON THEN WEAKEN LATE MON
INTO TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 75W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 04/2100 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC
FROM A 1000 MB LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 32N75W
CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN
FORT LAUDERDALE AND EVERGLADES CITY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
30 NM E OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT TO INLAND OVER E GEORGIA AND NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA. A VERY
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND
CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ACROSS HAITI INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO 29N56W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ALONG 25N63W TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N68W. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W ALONG 21N55W TO BEYOND 32N42W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 325 NM W OF THE FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH AND FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 46W-52W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 17N E OF 45W TO OVER W AFRICA ANCHORED
BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N27W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E
THROUGH TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 31N72W BY SAT MORNING AND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND TO
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES FURTHER SE BY SUN MORNING WITH WEAKENING FRONT TO
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY BY
LATE SUN INTO MON THEN DRIFT W TUE WITH FRONTAL TROUGH TO
HISPANIOLA. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND
WEAKEN THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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