[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI NOV 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N55W TO 16N53W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH CYCLONIC TURNING
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
BETWEEN 53W-57W. AS THE WAVE MOVES BENEATH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO
09N-11N BETWEEN 56W-59W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
09N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N20W TO 08N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N
BETWEEN 11W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
02N-06N BETWEEN 26W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED AT 04/0300 UTC FROM APALACHICOLA BAY NEAR 30N85W
SW TO 23N94W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR VERACRUZ.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY
ALOFT AND SO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT CARRIES ONLY LOW
TOPPED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE PLENTIFUL S OF
25N W OF 91W AS THE FRONT FALLS BENEATH MORE FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W. THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING EAST
OF THE FRONT FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 93W-96W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
AROUND 04/0244 UTC SHOWS STRONG N-NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS S OF 21N W OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY WINDS SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 25N70W TO A BASE
NEAR 12N78W. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROUGH WITH NW FLOW WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING W OF 74W. HOWEVER WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS NOTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
NORTHERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN GUATEMALA COASTS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO FARTHER NORTH FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FALLS EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND THEREFORE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NE FROM
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE REGION...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-69W IN RESPONSE TO MAXIMUM MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N72W. THE RIDGE
AXIS CARRIES SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 26N81W WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING W OF 65W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 32N60W TO 20N74W IN SUPPORT OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM 32N54W TO 24N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND THE FRONT WHILE FARTHER SW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA
NE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN
60W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
CONTROLLED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
40W-48W. OTHERWISE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALONG 31N09W TO 24N25W WITH
STRONG NW WINDS REMAINING N OF 30N AND E OF 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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