[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU NOV 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N51W TO 7N55W MOVING NW 15-20
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. WAVE IS WELL
DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N17W
ALONG 8N30W TO 7N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 7N12W TO 6N15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN
25W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N W OF 83W WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/2100 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER PENSACOLA
FLORIDA EXTENDING ALONG 26N91W 23N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
20N97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL GUATEMALA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ALONG 89W. DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT DOMINATES ALL BUT THE SW GULF. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
CONVERGING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF
92W. ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE COLD
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER NW TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO IS
LEAVING THE E GULF AND THE FAR NW GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE AND EXTEND FROM
NEAR TAMPA BAY TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MORNING THEN MOVE SE OF
THE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THEN WILL SHIFT E SUN AND MON. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN S ACROSS CUBA TO PANAMA
ALONG 78W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED INLAND OVER SE CUBA AND JAMAICA MOVING INTO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 59W IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 62W-73W INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM A 1006 MB LOW INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN LATE FRI NIGHT THEN WEAKEN OVER THE THE N CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA TO OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W THEN S INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N56W TO 27N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 25N71W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE
SE EXTENDING FROM 27N63W TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N FROM OVER
VENEZUELA ALONG 59W TO 24N THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N54W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N62W TO BEYOND
32N54W. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR E ATLC TO OVER AFRICA
N OF 24N E OF 20W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N10W JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 27N15W TO
24N26W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N35W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE E ATLC N OF
20N BETWEEN 20W-50W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N35W WITH
A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE COLD FRONT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC FRI REACHING FROM
OFF NE FLORIDA TO NEAR W PALM BEACH FLORIDA BY FRI EVENING
REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SAT
THEN WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH N OF THE GRATER ANTILLES LATER
ON SUN INTO LATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net