[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU NOV 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 06N52W TO 16N48W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH CYCLONIC TURNING
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
BETWEEN 47W-54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N
BETWEEN 43W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
11N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N20W TO 04N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N
BETWEEN 26W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W
WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD ALONG 90W TO 25N THEN NE
OVER THE SE CONUS. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING WHICH
LARGELY SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM
SOUTHERN GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST
NEAR 23N98W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE SW GULF ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 24N W OF
90W. MORE IMPORTANTLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 30 NM SOUTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS. THE FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
NW OF THE FRONT WHICH ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE GULF WATERS THROUGH TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 76W AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH IS
PROVIDING THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT
THIS MORNING. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TO 15 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER
OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 84W-88W. E OF 76W...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT ADVECTING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 59W-66W...AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 66W-73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM 37N62W S-SW TO A BASE OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N76W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W TO 28N65W THEN BECOMES A
SHEAR LINE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N78W. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AROUND 03/0124 UTC AND 03/0304 UTC
INDICATED STRONGER NE WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE TO 27N
BETWEEN 70W-83W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY W OF 66W. FARTHER SE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 18N68W TO 27N63W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 13N-23N
BETWEEN 59W-66W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE FROM
23N-32N BETWEEN 55W-63W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
32N40W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 40W TO 18N. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN SUPPORT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 48W-54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC
SHOWS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 32N12W TO 27N25W TO 25N35W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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