[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion
EMWIN Server
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Thu Nov 3 00:59:48 CDT 2011
AXNT20 KNHC 030558
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU NOV 03 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 05N50W TO 13N45W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH CYCLONIC TURNING
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
BETWEEN 45W-53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-13N
BETWEEN 43W-51W...AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 37W-48W.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
11N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N22W TO 05N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-10N
BETWEEN 24W-36W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W
WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD ALONG 90W TO 27N THEN NE
OVER THE SE CONUS. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING AND
THIS LARGELY SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE BASIN
FROM SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO
COAST NEAR 22N98W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 19N95W TO 22N96W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N E OF 93W...AND FROM 20N-22N W OF 94W IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS USHERING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF
THE FRONT WHICH WILL SPREAD SE OVER THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 77W AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH IS
PROVIDING THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT
THIS EVENING. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. E OF 77W...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT ADVECTING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 60W-66W...AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 66W-73W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM 38N65W S-SW TO A BASE OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N77W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W TO 27N65W THEN BECOMES A
SHEAR LINE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N80W. RECENT ASCAT PASSES AROUND 03/0124 UTC AND 03/0304 UTC
INDICATED STRONGER NE WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE TO 27N
BETWEEN 70W-83W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. FARTHER SE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 19N68W TO 28N62W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
60W-66W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE FROM 21N-32N
BETWEEN 56W-64W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANC
000
NZUS99 KSGF 030559
HRRSGF
HOURLY WEATHER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 AM CDT THU NOV 03 2011
......SGF CWA......
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 43 43 100 NW10 29.84F FOG
6HR MIN TEMP: 43; 6HR MAX TEMP: 65; 6HR PCP: 0.41;
JOPLIN LGT RAIN 40 39 97 NW17G23 30.01R FOG WCI 31
6HR MIN TEMP: 40; 6HR MAX TEMP: 61; 6HR PCP: 0.62;
WEST PLAINS RAIN 54 52 93 W6 29.85R FOG
6HR MIN TEMP: 54; 6HR MAX TEMP: 63; 6HR PCP: 0.15;
ROLLA LGT RAIN 51 50 96 N8 29.81F FOG
6HR MIN TEMP: 50; 6HR MAX TEMP: 64; 6HR PCP: 0.29;
OSAGE BEACH CLOUDY 45 41 87 NE9 29.84S
......SURROUNDING SGF CWA......
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHANUTE LGT RAIN 39 36 89 NW22G36 30.10R WCI 29
PARSONS LGT RAIN 39 50 100 NW17G29 30.12R WCI 30
COFFEYVILLE LGT RAIN 41 37 86 NW21G30 30.12R
EMPORIA LGT RAIN 37 34 89 NW25G36 30.18R WCI 25
GROVE OK LGT RAIN 41 41 100 NW16G22 30.07R
SILOAM SPRINGS CLOUDY 41 36 81 W15 30.04S
HARRISON AR CLOUDY 47 45 93 W17G31 29.90S
NEAR YELLVILLE CLOUDY N/A N/A N/A W6G18 29.84F
......KANSAS AND MISSOURI......
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
KANSAS CTY INT LGT RAIN 39 37 92 N24G35 30.02F WCI 28
DOWNTOWN KC LGT RAIN 41 37 86 N17G31 30.00F
COLUMBIA LGT RAIN 44 43 96 NE22G37 29.83F
SEDALIA CLOUDY 43 42 97 N10 29.89F
ST JOSEPH LGT RAIN 40 38 93 N18 30.10S WCI 31
ST LOUIS RAIN 59 47 64 S7 29.86R
SPIRIT OF STL LGT RAIN 56 49 77 CALM 29.84F
KIRKSVILLE LGT RAIN 39 36 89 N20G31 29.99R WCI 29
WICHITA MOCLDY 38 32 79 NW16G39 30.28F WCI 29
TOPEKA LGT RAIN 41 36 82 NW21G29 30.15R
OLATHE LGT RAIN 39 36 89 N15G31 29.99R WCI 31
......TENNESSEE......
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MEMPHIS PTCLDY 60 43 53 S14G22 29.95F
NASHVILLE PTCLDY 46 35 65 S6 30.12F
......ARKANSAS.......
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
FAYETTEVILLE CLOUDY 41 40 96 W15G29 30.01F
FT SMITH CLOUDY 47 44 90 W21G32 30.06R
LITTLE ROCK LGT RAIN 64 61 90 W12 29.93R FOG
......OKLAHOMA.......
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TULSA DRIZZLE 41 38 89 NW23G32 30.17R
PONCA CITY CLEAR 39 31 72 NW20G30 30.25R WCI 29
MCALESTER CLOUDY 43 35 73 NW20G33 30.20R
OKLAHOMA CITY PTCLDY 40 31 70 N23G38 30.30R WCI 30
......IOWA............
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DES MOINES CLOUDY 41 38 89 N6 30.14F
QUAD CITIES LGT RAIN 41 38 89 NE14G22 30.02F
......ILLINOIS........
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
QUINCY RAIN 42 40 92 N22G31 29.94F FOG
CHICAGO CLOUDY 48 42 80 NE15G23 30.04R
WWWW
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