[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED NOV 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N43W TO 5N49W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. WAVE IS WELL
DEFINED IN THE GFS STREAMLINES WITH BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N19W
ALONG 5N31W TO 5N44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 24W-36W AND FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 40W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED OVER N GUATEMALA
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N TO OVER THE SE CONUS. DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES
THE MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER NORTH
CAROLINA. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE  WHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 22N96W GENERATING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY THU AND WILL REACH FROM
THE W FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO THU EVENING THEN
WEAKEN FROM S FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI EVENING
AND DISSIPATE BY SAT EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N W OF 80W
TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INDUCING AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N85W ACROSS NE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA TO
11N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 14N E OF 71W TO OVER THE ISLANDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH
THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N72W TO OVER
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N78W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N62W ALONG 27N67W TO 24N73W
WHERE A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS
TO 23N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE FRONT/SHEAR AXIS W OF 68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E
EXTENDING FROM 27N63W TO OVER THE MONA PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 60W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
29N56W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N54W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N56W TO 32N57W AND
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N-25N BETWEEN 49W-59W. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE E ATLC TO
30N E OF 20W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N16W ALONG 26N34W TO 27N41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE E ATLC N OF
20N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE REGION
NEAR 34N43W AND BISECTED BY THE ABOVE COLD FRONT. THE W ATLC
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MERGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC BY THU NIGHT. A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE W ATLC FRI INTO SAT WEAKENING BY SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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