[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED NOV 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N46W TO 12N41W MOVING W AT 5-10
KT. THE WAVE LARGELY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 37W-49W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N17W TO 04N28W TO 04N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 15W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER BELIZE
NEAR 17N88W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD TO THE LOUISIANA
GULF COAST. WHILE DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF THIS
MORNING...THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N78W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 29N90W TO A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 22N WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY ANALYZED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 19N94W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER BELIZE NEAR
17N88W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO FOCUS IN THE VICINITY OF A SHEAR LINE
ANALYZED FROM 22N82W TO 20N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 79W-88W. FARTHER SOUTH...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N-16N ALONG 83W WITH CONVERGENT
TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN
81W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF COASTAL COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM 20N70W TO CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 09N79W.
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING BETWEEN 64W-74W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCUPIES THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD
ALONG 10N FROM A TROPICAL ATLC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 09N45W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO A BASE
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N78W. AS OF 02/0900 UTC...THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 37N65W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 32N63W TO
27N70W TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR LINE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 29N70W TO 27N79W AND IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH THE FRONT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS.
AN EARLIER 02/0146 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT NORTH AND WEST OF THE SHEAR
LINE AXIS WITH THIS WIND FIELD COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING. SE OF THE COLD FRONT...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N66W TO 28N62W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN
60W-66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N11W TO
25N30W TO 27N46W. NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM AN INTENSE 970 MB LOW
LOCATED IN THE EASTERN NORTH ATLC AND IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N23W
TO 28N43W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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