[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED NOV 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 05N46W TO 13N36W MOVING W AT 10
KT. THE WAVE LARGELY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 33W-47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO
05N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN
19W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N91W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD
ALONG 93W TO OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. WHILE DRY AIR AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING...THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID-ATLC STATES NEAR 39N78W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO 29N91W TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 22N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY
OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST
EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 17N91W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO FOCUS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 21N83W TO 18N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 83W-89W. FARTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N-17N ALONG 84W WITH CONVERGENT
TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN
81W-87W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...
AND EASTERN HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM 20N71W TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR
09N78W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 70W-74W...AND FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 63W-70W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCUPIES THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 10N
FROM A TROPICAL ATLC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
09N39W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH TO A BASE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N80W. AS OF 02/0300 UTC...THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
NEAR 36N67W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 32N66W TO
27N73W BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 23N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N70W TO 27N80W AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH THE FRONT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS. A
RECENT 02/0146 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WEST OF THE EASTERN-MOST COLD FRONT
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS THIS EVENING.
SE OF THESE FRONTS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 19N65W TO
26N63W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N13W TO 26N35W TO 29N47W. NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
FROM AN INTENSE 971 MB LOW LOCATED IN THE EASTERN NORTH ATLC LOW
ALONG 32N30W TO 29N43W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 22W-43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net