[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE NOV 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N36W 8N40W 5N43W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N20W TO 5N22W TO 6N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY MUCH
DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVER THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO ALREADY HAS CLEARED THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND NOW MOSTLY IS CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE U.S.A
EAST COAST. THE MIDDLE LEVEL PART OF THE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND...
CROSSING LAKE OKEECHOBEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATIFORM
CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF
80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA...THROUGH AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
26N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 11N82W 16N84W 17N86W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 17N86W...INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 33N68W TO ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS...AND WESTERN CUBA...TO
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST TO THE SOUTH OF
13N TO THE WEST OF 73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES ALONG THE
COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 12N73W...TO EASTERN PANAMA...TO EASTERN
COSTA RICA ALONG 10N...AND ACROSS COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N70W...JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 15N73W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT
IS BETWEEN 66W AND 81W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF 66W...CURVING AWAY FROM THE 15N73W CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO
THE EAST OF 74W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM A 1014 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N68W TO ELEUTHERA IN THE
BAHAMAS...AND WESTERN CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 180 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 28N. CLOUDS AND
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 65 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N68W 27N73W 24N77W 23N81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 29N76W 27N80W WITH THE SECOND
COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N61W TO 21N62W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 58W
AND 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N43W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N54W...TOWARD 20N60W. CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN
44W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM LAND TO 13N
BETWEEN 56W AND 62W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND POSSIBLE
REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 30N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT/AH





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