[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE NOV 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 05N40W TO 11N36W MOVING W AT 10
KT. THE WAVE LARGELY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-42W.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE AXIS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 34W-42W.
CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER EAST IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ
AXIS ALONG 09N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
11N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N20W TO 08N26W TO 08N39W TO 05N45W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN
20W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN
45W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS
TO A BASE NEAR 25N92W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR AND MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING
REMAINS UNDER DRY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EAST OF 92W.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO THE NE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE SE GULF WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 27N94W TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO
COAST NEAR 22N98W. NE WINDS PREVAIL EAST OF THIS AXIS OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN...MIDDLE...AND SW GULF WITH LIGHTER
NE TO E WINDS OVER THE NW GULF OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE TEXAS
GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 76W FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE OVER
CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W. WHILE LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE...A STATIONARY
FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TO CANCUN MEXICO THEN INTO A WEAK 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
17N85W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 85W-88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FARTHER
SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERS FROM THE LOW ALONG COASTAL
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 17N85W TO 15N83W TO
10N82W. EASTERLY TRADES CONVERGE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
AND ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 17N
W OF 82W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 20N72W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADDED MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 64W-73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA S-SW OVER THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF
01/0900 UTC...THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N73W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE LOW TO
NEAR 32N66W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 26N79W THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 60W-73W. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N77W TO 29N80W AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL COVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS N OF 24N W OF 70W BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N28W AND A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 30N45W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS E OF 50W...HOWEVER EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE RIDGING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N59W TO 25N56W AS A REFLECTION OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENERGY IN A SHEAR ZONE FROM
15N-20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 44W-53W EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 59W-65W WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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