[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE NOV 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 02N40W TO 10N37W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE LARGELY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN
33W-41W. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE AXIS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN
35W-41W. CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER EAST IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
12N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
12N18W TO 09N25W TO 08N38W TO 06N45W TO 10N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN
20W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN
45W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TO A
BASE NEAR 24N94W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR AND MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING
REMAINS UNDER DRY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF...A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO
THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE
SE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 25N E OF 88W...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE NOTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 81W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
NEAR 34N88W. N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE
EASTERN AND SW GULF WITH LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS OVER THE NW GULF
OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 77W FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE
OVER CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. WHILE LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA TO NEAR CANCUN
MEXICO TO 18N87W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 16N19N BETWEEN 85W-88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
FARTHER SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERS ALONG COASTAL
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 17N86W TO 15N83W TO
10N82W. EASTERLY TRADES CONVERGE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
AND ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 17N
W OF 82W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 18N72W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADDED MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 63W-72W...AND S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-76W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM THE OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA S-SW OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. AS OF 01/0300 UTC THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A
1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N75W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E-NE FROM
THE LOW TO NEAR 32N66W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W
THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE WARM FROM BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 60W-77W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM
32N77W TO 29N81W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25
KT ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL COVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS N OF 24N W OF 70W BY LATE
TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N30W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY FAIR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS E OF 50W...HOWEVER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N56W TO 21N55W AS A REFLECTION
OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENERGY IN A SHEAR ZONE FROM
15N-20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 37W-52W EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...AND FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 56W-64W WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 01/0024 UTC DEPICTED 20-25 KT
NE TO E WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N-26N
BETWEEN 49W-62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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